[oasis-members] More stuff needed for Odyssey

[Craig Milo Rogers]

Breaking News!

News sources are reporting that China has used a missile to destroy
one of their obsolete weather satellites in low earth orbit.  This
action may have important techincal and political implications.

On the technical side, destroying a satellite in orbit can yield
hundreds or thousands of fragments with the potential to damage or
destroy other satellites in similar orbital planes.  Although the
chances of a collision may seem small, there have already been
confirmed cases of satellite damage due to debris; for example, the
July, 1996, damage to the French Cerise satellite.  Deliberately
creating more space debris will only increase this risk.

There is also concern that once enough space debris accumulates in low
earth orbit, the probability of damaging collisions will become so
high that we will lose practically all existing assets in that region
of space.  There might even be a chain-reaction frenzy of satellite
destruction, leaving behind an orbiting haze of hazardous objects.
Eventually these smaller fragments will decay, but until then access
to space will be much more risky than at present.

The US and USSR have planned and tested anti-satellite weapons since
the beginning of the space era in 1959.  The first successful US test
occured in 1985.  Both countries have spent considerable effort on
developing a variety of ground-, air-, and space-based anti-satellite
platforms.  The entry of China into the satellite-killing club should
not be unexpected, given that country's successful manned space
program and avowed intent to meet and surpass American and Soviet
space accomplishments in all areas.

If China can deploy an anti-satellite system, what about other
countries?  Would the United States feel comfortable if North Korea
announced an anti-satellite capability?  Or, if Iran did?  The
development of increasingly cheaper access to low earth orbit,
inherently available to the world market, poses considerable risk to
existing and planned national and international space assets.  Will
the ISS be politically viable in the US in 2014 if the US doesn't have
the capability to launch passengers and cargo to the station, but
dozens of countries have the capability to destroy it?  Will private
investors want to put their money into satellites and space-based
industries?  Will the commercial space launch industry find customers?

In conclusion, the next time you're looking at the dark night sky and
see a shooting star, ponder this question: Did someone shoot it on
purpose?

-30-

					Craig Milo Rogers