President's Message

As happens every two years, this November has brought us another federal election. The results of the 2002 election indicate a change in the make-up of Congress, giving the country a Republican majority in both houses as well as a Republican president.

Mr. Bush has indicated that his major priorities are improving homeland security, continuing the war against terrorism, and unseating Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Indications are that Congress will back him up in pursuing these goals.

What does this mean to space programs? There are several possible effects. First, expect greater funding for military space projects. The majority of this will go for reconnaissance satellites and signal intelligence (eavesdropping) satellites to track the activities of terrorists, Iraq's military, and other potential threats. Civilian and military personnel will want the best information possible before committing troops and resources to a course of action. Military reconnaissance funding may extend to large-scale space-based radar satellites to track tanks, aircraft, ships, and troops in all weather conditions.

Second, the president and Department of Defense have shown a desire to deliver "assets" to anywhere on the globe on short notice. These assets range from smart weapons to unmanned drones to personnel performing covert operations. So we may expect to see an increase in funding for transatmospheric vehicles, hypersonic propulsion systems, and inexpensive expendable rockets able to deliver large payloads quickly and reliably.

Third, we will see an increase in funding for ballistic missile defense systems. Mr. Bush has indicated that he wants to deploy a National Missile Defense system to protect the United States and its allies against a missile strike from "rogue" nations. Such a defense system will include ground-based radars and missiles and satellites to detect missile launches. It may also include airborne and space-based anti-missile laser systems.

Fourth, we may see an increased use of civilian spacecraft in roles to support military and counter-terrorism activities both here and abroad. There is already considerable use of commercial communications satellites to provide unclassified military communications. We can expect a substantial increase in this use as more forces are deployed overseas. Besides communications support, commercial firms currently provide imagery from civilian satellites to military forces and the National Reconnaissance Office to support various operations. We may expect to see an increased demand in such imagery.

(Note: The government organizations mentioned above are paying customers for the products of both the communications and the imagery satellite service providers. These satellites are, and will continue to be, owned and operated by private firms.)

There has also been discussion on using the Alpha space station to collect imagery of suspected terrorist training facilities and military operations in hostile territory. We may expect to see more military focus in the Station's activities in the near future.

Fifth, we will see more space projects having to "sell" themselves to decision makers based on their application in either the war on terrorism or in military operations. This could have many overt and subtle effects on research projects, imaging technologies, computer hardware and software development programs, and the like.

Finally, we may expect to see more obstacles to international cooperation in space programs. We have already seen multiple barriers put in place concerning exchange of hardware and technical data with friendly nations. This followed the failures of Chinese launchers lofting US-built satellites and the ensuing exchange of launcher information by American firms to the Chinese government. Additionally, federal enforcement of anti-proliferation regulations increased dramatically following the events of September 11, 2001. We can expect further restrictions of technical data and materials which could be applied to ballistic missiles or space-based weaponry.

The predictions that I've described above are not meant to bolster anyone's left- or right-leaning political agendas. They represent an extrapolation of current conditions and the stated priorities of those who'll be making space policy decisions over the next few years. This will have both positive and negative effects on the course of space development.

But one thing is certain: the landscape of space politics is going to change considerably before the election of 2004 and in ways that none of us can predict.

I welcome your feedback.

Steve Bartlett